The global smartphone market is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged two-year decline, according to IDC estimates. In 2024, global smartphone sales are forecasted to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, reaching 1.24 billion units. This growth is primarily driven by low-penetration regions, where the demand for affordable Android devices has surged.
Android and iPhone Performance
Android smartphones are expected to experience a 7.6% year-on-year growth, fueled by affordable models in regions like Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and China. Most of this growth will occur in the low-end market segment.
Conversely, iPhone growth is predicted to be modest at 0.4% in 2024. While Apple has achieved record sales in emerging markets such as India, it faces challenges in larger markets like China, the US, and Europe. Despite these struggles, Apple continues to dominate the premium segment, with the average price of its devices exceeding $1,000. In contrast, Android devices maintain an average price of $295, catering to a broader range of consumers.
Deferred Demand and Regional Trends
IDC analysts attribute much of the 2024 market recovery to deferred demand from the pandemic years. Chinese brands like Huawei and Xiaomi have particularly benefited, leveraging their focus on affordable devices in developing markets. Huawei’s international launch of its flagship Pura 70 smartphones, equipped with self-developed chips, marked a significant step in overcoming US sanctions. Similarly, Xiaomi has announced plans to release its own semiconductors by 2025, which could further solidify its position in the market.
In China, competition among smartphone brands remains fierce. Large-scale promotions have successfully boosted demand in 2024, outperforming similar efforts from the previous year. However, economic instability in the country remains a significant concern. Globally, while shipments are recovering, they are still below pre-pandemic levels. IDC predicts growth will remain limited to single-digit percentages in the coming years due to market saturation, longer smartphone lifespans, and the growing popularity of the secondary market.
The Role of AI and Consumer Awareness
Generative AI integration has emerged as a focal point for leading companies like Apple, Samsung, and Google, notes NIX Solutions. However, its influence on consumer demand remains minimal. According to Nabila Popal, IDC’s research director, AI has yet to drive significant early device upgrades.
“While AI remains a hot topic and a top priority for many manufacturers, its impact on demand is still insignificant and does not stimulate early device updates,” Popal explains. She adds that additional investments are required to raise consumer awareness and make AI a compelling feature that drives the anticipated “supercycle” of device upgrades.
Manufacturers, therefore, face the dual challenge of improving technologies and actively educating consumers about their benefits. We’ll keep you updated as new AI integrations and advancements emerge, potentially shaping the next phase of the smartphone market.